Hang Seng Electronics (600570)： Financial IT King with a Clear Path

Hang Seng Electronics (600570): Financial IT King with a Clear Path

The clear-cut financial IT king Hang Seng Electronics is the only financial IT service provider in China that covers all areas and shares advantages on an average. Based on the three-level R & D structure of the “Hang Seng Research Institute-Development Center-Business Sector Platform”, it has successfully built a completeInnovative mechanism, bright star-shaped products blossom, and platform transformation under “online” strategy is where the company’s future growth lies.

Long-term and short-term resonance, industry innovation meets inflection points, frequent regulatory policies, and financial IT enters the innovation cycle. Among them, the marginal changes in policy ends such as new asset management regulations and the Shanghai-London Stock Connect, science and technology board, and other trading rules will bring nearly 3 billion in potential demand.Market growth.

In the long run, the domestic securities trading market continues to be in its growth stage. It is expected that the current average annual growth rate of about 17% will be maintained in the next five years. Securities hardware and software companies can benefit from the overall development of the industry, and the competitiveness of individual companies.Will determine the market share of each company.

The network effect created a relatively stable IT structure for high-barrier securities. Hang Seng Electronics, Gold Securities, Kingstar, front-end software and Wintime wins stood out. Hang Seng Electronics is the leader, with an overall share of 40%.

We judge that the network effect in this field will gradually increase in the future. The total number of customers, the number of customers on the right, and the integrity of the product system will greatly affect the future value of their respective companies.

Strategic layout + product capabilities achieve 南宁桑拿 unique advantages. The differences in strategic layout and the exclusivity of products determine the layout of the existing market. As a leader in this field, the company makes full use of its precise strategic layout and product capabilities to seize the market based on first-mover advantages.Under the high customer base and expected churn rate, the incremental user market will be gradually expanded and become the industry’s best beneficiary.

Investment recommendations We expect the company’s net profit to reach 9 in 2019-2021.

20, 12.

30, 15.

94 ppm, EPS is 1.

15.1.

53,1.

98 yuan, corresponding to 71 for PE.

5,53.

5, 41.

3 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Risk Warning: The improvement of internal management is lower than expected; the development of innovative technologies is lower than expected; the IT expenditure of financial institutions is lower than expected.

Zhongtai Macro： Is the stock market soaring since the beginning of the year, is the economy really going to stabilize？

Zhongtai Macro: Is the stock market soaring since the beginning of the year, is the economy really going to stabilize?

Since the beginning of the year, the stock market has surged, and cyclical assets have recently begun to fluster. Is the economy really going to stabilize?

How about the real economy and future trends?

　　Summary 1. Looking at Population in the Long Term: The Power of Trends.

According to our estimates, population growth in developing countries will become even more severe in the future.

The population aged 15-64 years has been reduced to less than 1 billion in 2017, and will be reduced to less than 8 billion by 2050, thus reducing the labor force by more than 200 million in 30 years.

The country’s new born population is expected to fall below 15 million this year, 14 million within three years, and 13 million within 7 years.

The decrease in the number of working-age people means that the economic growth of developing countries will continue to the next step and return to the new normal growth rate.

　　2, short-term policy: the game of leverage.

Facing the downward trend of potential economic growth, policies have been making countercyclical adjustments.

However, the policy stimulus can only solve short-term problems, but cannot solve the fundamental long-term economic growth problems, and the potential impact is great.

Before 2008, our financing was mainly to invest in plant, machinery and equipment, to increase the capital accumulation of production activities, to create GDP that can be matched with increased liabilities, and to maintain a stable leverage ratio.It is purely for the purpose of stable growth. Even if short-term economic demand is created, GDP cannot be continuously created, or the amount of GDP cannot be matched with debt, resulting in a sharp increase in leverage.

However, policy remains the most important variable affecting short-term economic trends.

　　3, the cost of the cycle: real estate lag.

It is estimated that the growth rate of real estate sales in the country this year may be below -10%. However, in the short term, industrial production and economic demand are still necessary. This mainly comes from three aspects.The construction of newly started real estate projects continued last year. The third is that the growth rate of infrastructure investment 合肥夜网 will increase steadily.

But real estate sales are the leading indicators, and the short-term cyclical demand growth is more a lag after the real estate cycle is lengthened.

We believe that the real stabilization of this round of economy comes from a new round of policy stimulus in the backwardness of Xiaocheng Real Estate, and the resulting reform and opening up have released the vitality of the economy.

At present, it seems that the former is difficult, but it is something that is being worked hard, but it will take some time to achieve results.

　　Although the domestic stock market’s rise since the beginning of the year has pulled investors back from extremely pessimistic expectations, the pricing of financial assets tends to become very optimistic, leading to a particularly pessimistic attitude. There is always some irrational pricing.

However, our idea is that, whether optimistic or pessimistic, regardless of cycle or growth, regardless of real estate or the stock market, core assets are the most valuable in the short term and the most value-added in the long term.

　　Looking at the population in the long run: From the long-term perspective, population is the most important variable affecting economic growth.

We examined the experience of Japan and South Korea and found that the growth rate of the working-age population is highly correlated with the trend of economic growth.

In the 1960s and 1970s, Japan’s working-age population increased rapidly, and its economic growth rate gradually dropped from more than 10% to a level of about 4%. After the 1990s, Japan’s working-age population experienced a second wave of downward growth.Negative growth for more than ten consecutive years, and Japan’s economic growth rate has been flat since the 1990s.

　　The growth rate of the working-age population in Korea is also highly consistent with the trend of economic growth. Since the 1980s, the growth rate of the working-age population in South Korea has fallen rapidly, and the economic growth rate has gradually dropped from a high growth of more than 10% to less than 4%.

　　The correlation between economic growth and population growth is actually easy to understand. If the production efficiency of each truck is the same, the more trucks there are, the more products will be produced.

Of course, we don’t think that the population is the only determinant of economic growth. Technological progress, the improvement of the quality of the population, the reform of the economic system and the improvement of efficiency will all have an impact on economic growth.

　　But in fact, technological progress will also be affected by demographic factors. We found that in countries with young and middle-aged demographic variables, the pace of innovation will also resume.

It shows that the working-age population will affect economic growth by affecting technological progress.

　　Chart: Japan’s working-age population growth and economic growth (%) Source: CEIC, China-Thailand Securities Research Institute Chart: Korea’s working-age population growth and economic growth (%) Source: CEIC, China-Thailand Securities Research Institute Current statusThe turning point in population growth has been around since 2006.

The growth is that the growth rate of the working-age population has increased since 2006, and has experienced negative growth for the past four years. At the same time that the population of young and middle-aged people has decreased, the elderly population has accelerated.

The reason behind this is mainly that since the 1990s, the number of new born people has been greatly reduced each year, and has been maintained at a low level of less than 20 million. The third generation of “baby boomers” did not appear as scheduled.

As a result, more and more people are withdrawing from the working-age army each year, but the number of newly added working-age people is decreasing every year.

　　According to our estimates, population growth in developing countries will become even more severe in the future.

Even considering the wide-caliber forecast of the diminishing hypertension method, the number of internal working-age population will continue to gradually increase.

The population aged 15-64 years has been reduced to less than 1 billion in 2017, and will be reduced to less than 8 billion by 2050, thus reducing the labor force by more than 200 million in 30 years.

　　Affected by factors such as high housing prices and high maintenance costs, the number of newborns is expected to fall below 15 million each year, 14 million within three years, and 13 million within 7 years.

If relatively strong policies to encourage population growth are not promulgated soon, the long-term population growth rate will deteriorate further.

　　Chart: Age of the working population and the growth rate of the elderly population (%) Source: CEIC, China-Thailand Securities Institute Chart: Forecast of the working-age population aged 15-64 (100 million people) Source: CEIC, China-Thailand Securities Institute’s working-age populationDeclining means that the economic growth of developing countries will continue to the next step and return to the new normal growth rate.

Since the 1980s, the total economic volume has experienced three downward waves. The first wave was in the middle and late 1980s. The main reason for this downward wave was that our marketization was not high enough, such as the failure of iconic price breakthroughs.As reforms continued, the economy picked up in the early 1990s.

　　The second wave of downlink was in the mid-to-late 1990s. In the 1990s, the Japanese economy was in a slump, the Asian financial crisis broke out, external shocks or this downward trend in the economy. In 1998-02, industries such as textiles also experienced local overcapacity.situation.

After joining the WTO, the economies of developing countries have entered a new round of upswing.

　　The third wave of downturn was after 2008. This wave of downturn was twice because the developed economy has been slumped after the financial crisis, and because the domestic factors of production-population have undergone major changes.

Population is a slow variable with many influencing factors. The impact of long-term population management policies cannot be changed in the short term.

The further increase of the working-age population growth means that the nominal economic growth rate will continue to the next step.

From the perspective of international experience, the long-term high-growth state is also difficult to maintain. The size of the economy and per capita income have increased to a certain degree, and eventually will return to conventional growth.

　　Chart: China’s GDP growth rate (%) Source: CEIC, China-Thailand Securities Research Institute. Short-term policy: the game of leverage. Although the long-term economic growth in the past decade and ten years is generally downward, if we look at the specificAt each stage of the economic situation, it will be found that the economic growth rate is not a subdivision all the way, there are ups and downs in the middle process.

Over the past decade, developing countries have experienced three small economic cycles.

　　This is because, in the face of a downturn in potential economic growth, policies have been making countercyclical adjustments.

In fact, when the economy is facing downward pressure, monetary and credit policies are often loosened first, followed by broad fiscal stimulus infrastructure, and finally loosened substantial changes.

When the economy recovers in the short-term, risk prevention and deleveraging will become the focus of policy. In fact, it will often be tightened first, and fiscal and monetary policies will be tightened afterwards.

　　Chart: GDP growth rate and power generation growth rate (%)% since 2008 Source: CEIC, China-Thailand Securities Research Institute, but policy stimulus can only solve short-term problems, but not fundamental long-term economic growth problems, andThe possibilities have a great impact.
The trend of economic growth rate in the past ten years is still downward, which shows that policies can only delay the time of economic downturn, but cannot change the direction of economic operation.

In addition, the policy stimulus has resulted in a serious soaring of the previous society ‘s leverage ratio. The debt problems of some local governments have become prominent. The debt of residents has also soared, and the real estate bubble in small and medium-sized cities has become a serious problem.

A direct consequence of the high debt rate is that there is less and less room for further policy stimulus in the future.

　　There are many discussions about leverage, so from a micro perspective, why is this leverage stable before 2008, but is it enough to soar after 2008?

In the past, our financing was mainly to invest in plant buildings, machinery and equipment, and to increase the capital accumulation of production activities, and these machinery, plant and other production facilities can continue to produce goods, and the GDP created can be matched with increased liabilities, and the leverage ratio will not bringMajor changes in the coming years.

　　But after 2008, despite the potential slowdown in economic growth, policy stimulus has led to more investment in infrastructure and real estate.

However, the construction of some infrastructure and real estate is not directly used for production purposes, but purely to achieve the goal of stable growth.

For example, some of the infrastructure we build, such as airports, parks, highways, underground, are not so cost-effective from the perspective of economic benefits, because although they create short-term economic demand, they cannot continue to create GDP, or the amount of GDP cannot be created and debtMatch.

　　If we reduce many of the houses we build, we ca n’t create enough rent from an economic perspective, because rent is the concentrated expression of the real estate ‘s contribution to the economy. Especially in the real estate market in most small cities, the rental yield is very low.From a long-term perspective, it mainly contributes to the “bubble”, but rarely contributes to economic growth continuously.

　　Therefore, some investments in infrastructure and real estate even create debt. These investments can also stimulate the short-term economy, but they cannot continue to create GDP that matches the opposite amount. This is actually the reason for the gradual increase in leverage.

To understand from this perspective, the method of deleveraging should not be through controlling and increasing leverage, but how to guide the increased leverage into economically beneficial investments, and how to improve economic growth efficiency through reform and opening up.

　　Chart: How much financing is needed to increase one unit of GDP per year Source: CEIC, China-Thailand Securities Research Institute Chart: Internal social leverage (%) Source: CEIC, China-Thailand Securities Research Institute ten years, real estate is involved in eachThe stimulus for economic recovery.

Regarding this, there have been many discussions on the data. Real estate plays a part in many aspects such as currency creation, consumption growth, and industrial economic stimulus.

We only look at the order of policy decisions. In each round of the economic downturn, in fact, it is almost the last one to be relaxed. Whenever the economy stabilizes, real estate is often the first policy to be tightened.

This not only shows that it is difficult to support the economy by infrastructure alone, but also that stimulating real estate may be helpless.

　　The average annual urban population increase in the past 10 years has basically fluctuated around 20 million, but the area of commercial housing sold each year has doubled from 700 million square meters to nearly 1.5 billion square meters.

The increase in population has not seen an increase, but the number of houses sold has increased significantly. This is mainly due to our policy stimulus.

　　The main factor affecting the real estate trend in each cycle is the adjustment policy. We can divide the adjustment policy of real estate into several dimensions: First, monetary policy. Real estate is an industry that is very sensitive to interest rates, so currency will affect all lines.The overall policy of the city; the second is the policy of alternative demand such as purchase and loan restriction, down payment ratio, which refutes the impact of large cities in the first and second tiers; the third is the monetization of shed reform, which is to increase the real estate demand of small cities in the third, fourth, and fifth linespolicy.

　　In terms of the magnitude of the impact, the marginal impact of monetary policy on the real estate market has weakened in recent years. Instead, restrictions on purchases and loans, down payment ratios, and monetization of shed reforms have replaced alternative policies that affect the demand of various tier cities.

For example, after the liberalization of monetary environment and real estate policies in 14-15, the first and second tier cities were stimulated first, while the third, fourth and fifth tier cities were raised after the shed reform monetization policy, which indicates that the real estate of small citiesThe market rebound is not the wide currency, but the demand driven by the monetization of the shed.

　　After the tightening of real estate budget policies in 16 years, the proportion of purchases and loans will be counted proportionally. The down payment ratio will be increased relatively. The increase in mortgage interest rates will be insignificant. Therefore, in 17 years, the real estate market in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities that have been tightened by policy has gradually cooled.However, the real estate market in small cities, still stimulated by the shed reform, was extremely hot in 17 and the first half of 18, which also reflects that the marginal impact of monetary policy on the real estate market in recent years has not been so great.

　　Chart: Incremental growth rate of real estate investment in large and small cities (%) Source: WIND, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute Chart: Luoyang, Weifang, Yangzhou House Price Index Source: CEIC, Zhongtai Securities Research InstituteUnder relatively loose conditions, the real estate market will pick up, but it should be noted that this year’s shed reform target has dropped by about 30%, and the proportion of monetization has been significantly reduced. The margin of the stimulus policy has weakened, which will definitely make small and medium citiesThe real estate market is under pressure.

The sales of real estate in first- and second-tier cities account for only one-third of the country’s total, and they cannot support the entire real estate market.

From the perspective of high-level data, real estate in small cities is still retreating in recent months, and only a few real estate markets such as Beijing and Shanghai have seen a return to recovery before the decline.

It is estimated that the growth rate of real estate sales area this year may be below -10%.

　　Chart: Incremental growth rate (%) of urban area and population expansion in cities Source: WIND, China-Thailand Securities Research Institute Chart: Most provinces lowered shed reform target Source: WIND, China-Thailand Securities Research InstituteThe adjustment of housing prices not only reduces the demand for the industrial economy, but also affects household consumption.

According to our approximate budget, the total market value of houses in four first-tier cities is about 101 trillion, and the total market value of houses in 31 second-tier cities is 73 trillion. The total market value of houses in other prefecture-level cities is 93 trillion.The market value of houses in other prefecture-level municipal districts reached 62%.This has never taken into account the county-level cities where the increase in house prices this round can also be considered. If considered, the proportion of housing market value in small and medium-sized cities is higher.

　　According to our research, when house prices rise and household debt rises, the effect on consumption is more driven rather than restrained by logical reasoning; and when house prices stop rising or even decline, due to the existence of wealth effects and income effects,Instead, it will cause a drag on consumption growth.

　　Chart: The growth rate of real estate market value in various cities (%) Source: CEIC, China-Thailand Securities Research Institute But in the short term, the growth rate of real estate sales will fall, while industrial production and economic demand must be reduced, this wasteFrom three aspects.

First of all, the fall in the sales end of real estate in small cities this year is different from 15-16 years. The last round of houses was mainly in the hands of developers. Due to financial pressure, developers will cut prices to inventory, which is equivalent to a “smashing” model.

After this round of inventories, the house is mainly in the hands of residents. The cost of residents holding houses will be reduced, and they will not easily “smash the plate”, so this round of small town real estate sales will cool down, but the prices will “resist””.

　　Until then, construction of previously started real estate projects will continue.

In the context of tight credit last year, developers mainly adopted a high turnover model to quickly acquire land-start construction-sales repayment-continue to acquire land.

Therefore, the main contribution of the high growth of real estate investment last year came from land transactions, but the volume of land transactions decreased and the transfer of land use rights. What really contributed to GDP and industrial production was the investment in construction and installation.

Due to the time limit for delivery, new projects started last year will continue to advance this year, and construction and installation investment will gradually support industrial production.

　　Finally, the growth rate of infrastructure investment this year will continue to grow steadily.

Under the downward pressure of the economy, this year’s overall central finance will become the main force to increase leverage, which will support infrastructure. We expect the infrastructure growth rate to rise to more than 10% this year, which will also support the economy.

　　But real estate sales are the leading indicators, and the short-term cyclical demand growth is more a lag after the real estate cycle is lengthened.

We believe that the real stabilization of this round of economy comes from a new round of policy stimulus in the backwardness of Xiaocheng Real Estate, and the resulting reform and opening up have released the vitality of the economy.

At present, it seems that the former is difficult, but it is something that is being worked hard, but it will take some time to achieve results.

　　Although the domestic stock market’s rise since the beginning of the year has pulled investors back from extremely pessimistic expectations, the pricing of financial assets tends to become very optimistic, leading to a particularly pessimistic attitude. There is always some irrational pricing.

However, our idea is that, whether optimistic or pessimistic, regardless of cycle or growth, regardless of real estate or the stock market, core assets are the most valuable in the short term and the most value-added in the long term.

　　Risk alert events: trade friction; economic downturn; exchange rate risk.

　　Title: “Is the Economy Stabilizing-A Debate on Trend Power and Countercyclical Policies (Zhongtai Hongliang Zhonghua)”

Jinjia Co., Ltd. (002191)： The main business of the tobacco label is steadily increasing. The advantages of the new tobacco card position are obvious.

Jinjia Co., Ltd. (002191): The main business of the tobacco label is steadily increasing. The advantages of the new tobacco card position are obvious.

2018 performance is in line with expectations Jin Jia shares announced the 2018 annual report: 2018 revenue of 33.

7.4 billion, an increase of 14 in ten years.

56%, net profit 7.

25 trillion, an increase of 26 in ten years.

27%, net of non-attributed net profit6.

920,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.

45%, in line with our expectations.

Among them, Q1-Q4 revenue increased by 8 respectively.

1% / 18.

8% / 13.

3% / 17.

9%, net profit increased by 21 each year.

1% / 30.

5% / 25.

8% / 29.

4%.

In addition, the company also forecast a 20% -30% increase in net profit in Q1 2019.

In 2019-2021, the company plans annual cash dividends to account for no less than 50% of net profit.

Development trend 1. The main business of cigarette labels continues to rise, and the large packaging business is growing rapidly.

The company’s revenue in 2018 reached 14.

56% growth, depending on the product: 1) Tobacco label revenue has doubled several times8.

05%, with the downstream tobacco industry gradually improving, the company’s outstanding design and research and development capabilities to seize downstream new product orders (fine cigarette sales increased by 杭州夜生活网 12%.

5%), the market share gradually increased; 2) color box revenue increased in ten years.

09%, customers in the fine tobacco, new tobacco and other fields have developed smoothly, and have obtained the qualifications of suppliers such as Maotai, Wangliangye, Anglo-American, Renault; 3) Revenue of new materials business increased by 4 as well.

26%, the company increased the construction of China Toyota ‘s laser packaging material production capacity, and expanded external sales while increasing the proportion of self-supply. In 2018, China Toyota achieved a net profit of 68.99 million yuan; 4) In terms of value-added services, the company’s creative design (Blueberry Culture) / JianzhenAnti-counterfeiting (through Hezhi Technology and its joint ventures Huada Beidou, Ant Financial Services Blockchain and other partners) 合肥夜网 empowers the packaging business and enhances the comprehensive service strength of large packaging.

In 2019, we expect the company’s main business of cigarette labels to maintain a high growth rate, and the large packaging business will continue to grow rapidly.

2. Profitability continued to improve.

The company achieved gross profit margin in 2018 of 43.

7%, slightly decreased by 0 every year.

5ppt, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of color boxes and other businesses with a reduced gross profit margin; the expense ratio during the period was 16.

0%, down by 1 every year.

2ppt, the cost control effect is good; realized investment income of 78.52 million yuan, an increase of 125% year-on-year, which is mainly due to the continued increase in packaging purchases of participating companies, Chongqing Hongsheng continued to improve performance.

The company’s net margin increased by 2ppt to 21.

5%.

3. Pay attention to the development of new tobacco business and the implementation of regulatory policies.

The company reached a comprehensive strategic cooperation with Yunnan Tobacco and assumed the production of its new tobacco smoking set. It established a joint venture with Xiaomi Eco-Chain Enterprise to expand the research and development of new tobacco products. The subsidiary Jinjia Technology provided new tobacco research and development services to supplement China Tobacco.The accumulation in the smoke system is deep, and the card position advantage is obvious.

With reference to international experience, we expect that domestic new tobacco is expected to be placed under the supervision of the China Tobacco System in the future, and we are optimistic about the company’s years of resources and first-mover advantages in the China Tobacco system.

Earnings forecast we maintain 0 for 19/20.62/0.

The profit forecast of RMB 74 remains unchanged, corresponding to 23/19 times P / E.

Estimates and recommendations maintain the recommended level and re-select the best.

Maintain target price of 17.

5 yuan, corresponding to 24 times 2020EP / E, about 22% growth space.

The prices of risky raw materials have fluctuated sharply, and new tobacco policies have fallen short of expectations.

Xugong Machinery (000425)： Xugong Information Increasing and Expansion Shares Focus on Xugong Group Mixed Improvement Exhibition

Xugong Machinery (000425): Xugong Information Increasing and Expansion Shares Focus on Xugong Group Mixed Improvement Exhibition

The event company announced on December 13 that the capital increase transaction of its subsidiary XCMG Information has been completed.

New investors subscribed for 10.66 million shares, with a total capital contribution of RMB 30,000, and Gao Capital Capital led the investment1.

6 million, the company’s shareholding in XCMG Information changed from 60% to 45%.

The funds raised this time are intended to be used for the research and development of XCMG’s internet technology, the construction of industrial internet infrastructure and the marketing system.

Comment on XCMG’s capital increase of 300 million, led by Gao Capital, XCMG’s equity holdings increased by 45 times in 5 years. XCMG’s main business is industrial Internet, Internet of Things intelligent devices and equipment networking.

According to a third-party assessment, on December 31, 2018, 四川耍耍网 XCMG Information was valued at 8.

800 million, currently estimated 1.2 billion after the investment.

When XCMG was registered in 2014, the cost of equity held by XCMG was 12 million. The current valuation of this part of the equity5.

40,000 yuan, 45-year increase in value over 45 years.

Among the 3 trillion in the capital increase, Gaofeng Capital, Nanjing Saifuheng Quasi Venture Capital Fund and China Electronics Technology (Nanjing) Industrial Investment Fund ranked the first three, respectively.

6/0.

4/0.

300 million.

After the capital increase and share expansion, the top three shareholders of XCMG Information are XCMG, Xuzhou Qunzhi Information and Gaojing Capital, with a shareholding ratio of 45% and 23.

7% and 13.

3%.

XCMG Machinery’s shares were converted from 60% to 45%, keeping the actual controller of XCMG Information unchanged, and still merging the company’s consolidated statement scope.

The value-added capital accelerates the development of XCMG’s new products, develops new technologies, lays out new markets, seizes the industry’s development potential, enhances the competitiveness of enterprises, and quickly grows bigger and stronger.

The value-added is proposed to introduce well-known domestic investors with Internet genes and emerging technology backgrounds to achieve complementary advantages and resource synergy, and accelerate the pace of the company’s informatization construction.

The growth rate of truck crane sales rebounded in the fourth quarter, and the sales of excavators exceeded expectations.

The sales growth rate of the automobile crane industry rebounded, and the industry sales growth rate was 9 in September.

2% reverses the gradual trend, increasing by 19.10 months ago
.

5% continued to pick up. In November, the company’s sales volume increased by 30-40%, the growth rate exceeded that of the industry, and its market share gradually increased from the third quarter.

In November, the industry-wide sales of excavators exceeded expectations by 22%, and XCMG’s growth rate exceeded 50%.

Benefiting from the equipment update cycle to supplement infrastructure investment growth, strict environmental protection policies, manual substitution, and overseas export growth, multiple factors have affected the concentration of leading companies.

The company’s controlling shareholder mixed reform is being implemented as planned.

In the future, the company is expected to lay the foundation for subsequent equity incentives, employee shareholding platforms and other measures in XCMG’s annual strategic investors, which will stimulate development momentum and the company’s governance will reach a new level.

The parent company’s excavators and other high-quality assets do not rule out injections in the future, and the company expects to benefit in many ways.

Earnings forecast and investment recommendations Net profit is expected to be 39/48/54 million in 2019-2021, an increase of 90% / 25% / 12%, and a compound growth rate of 38%.

EPS is 0.

50/0.

62/0.

69 yuan; PE is 10.

1/8.

2/7.

3 times.

To 10 times the PE in 2020, the target price from June to December is 6.
2 yuan.
Maintain “Buy” rating.

If the excavator is injected, it is expected that the excavator business of XCMG is reasonably estimated to exceed 20 billion yuan.

Risk warnings: Infrastructure real estate investment is less than expected; sales risk of some product industries; exchange rate risk.

People’s Daily Overseas Edition-Effective, Good and Potential

People’s Daily Overseas Edition: Really Good Potential, Full of Vitality, Chinese Economy Expected to Stabilize

Possesses good potential and is full of vitality. China’s economic expectations are stable and steady!

　　On average, about 7 patent applications are submitted every minute, and over 200,000 people travel by high-speed rail per hour, about 1.
.

860,000 enterprises are newly registered and established . this is a surprising number of the current Chinese economy.

The external environment is still complex, but the potential, potential and vitality of China’s economy adds certainty to the unstable external environment, injecting a booster for market players.

Ren’s international expectations are changing, and the Chinese economy is expected to remain stable.

　　There are some leading indicators for the continuous improvement of the confidence of market entities, which shows the prosperity of the industry and the level of confidence of market entities.

At present, the secondary and tertiary industries have maintained a good momentum.

　　In April, the service industry business activity index was 53.

3%, continued to stay above the threshold of rise and fall, of which the service industry business activity expectations index was as high as 60.

0%; China’s manufacturing purchasing manager index is 50.

1%, staying in the expansion range, and the expected index of production and operation activities was at a relatively high level of 56% for three consecutive months.

　　What factors are based on current confidence?

　　Macro-level stability.

“At first glance, the main indicators have remained stable, and even the growth rate has accelerated slightly.

Looking across, whether it is economic growth or employment, prices, market vitality, China’s economic operation is still in a reasonable range.

“Said Liu Aihua, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics.

Taking key employment indicators as an example, from January to April, 4.59 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, and 42% of the expected plan was completed in a third of the time.

　　Live from the micro-plane.

From January to April, the average daily number of newly registered enterprises nationwide reached 1.

860,000 households, micro-enterprise entrepreneurial innovation is full of strength; the scale exceeds the value-added of private enterprises in the industry for ten years.

1%, 2 faster than the same period last year.

4 levels, the enterprise is highly enthusiastic about production.

“No matter in terms of the driving force of innovation and entrepreneurship, the vitality of production and operation, or the expectations of future production and operation, the vitality of micro-subjects is increasing.
”

“Liu Aihua said.

　　Increased ability to cope with external shocks So, can current good expectations continue?

Especially in the context of economic and trade frictions, can anyone reset the test of the Chinese economy?

　　Facts speak louder than words.

China’s economic growth rate was 6 last year.

6%, the highest growth rate among the world’s major economies.

More importantly, this is the economic growth achieved under the background of full employment, moderate prices, and good people’s livelihood-the unemployment rate in urban surveys between the whole year of last year was basically around 5%; prices remained at a moderate growth range around 2%; Residents’ artificially controlled income is basically synchronized with economic growth.

GDP growth in the first quarter of this year6.

4%, generally better than expected.

　　”In general, China’s economy has shown good performance, full potential, and vitality, and its ability to respond to external shocks is constantly increasing.

“Liu Aihua said.
　　In addition to steady income growth, the optimization of China’s economic structure, the vigorous development of new kinetic energy, and the strong momentum 西安耍耍网 of innovation are also reasons for long-term optimism in the future.

　　Along with a series of breakthroughs, new technologies, new industries and new products have achieved rapid growth, and the continuous conversion of new and old kinetic energy has steadily advanced.

In terms of emerging services, the information transmission, software and information technology services industry continued to grow in April25.
0%, faster than the national service industry production index of 17.
6 averages.

　　Zhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, analyzed this reporter’s report that at present, Chinese enterprises have a strong intention to innovate; the protection of innovation is getting better and better; from the perspective of innovation results, high-tech manufacturing and service industries are developing rapidlyThe formation of a virtuous circle between industry and investment, these have provided very important guarantees for supply-side structural reforms and the promotion of consumption shortfalls.

　　There is plenty of room for rich macro-policy tools. From May 1, policies to reduce social insurance premium rates have been implemented.

Since this year, China has implemented large-scale tax and fee reductions, and the scale will reach about 2 trillion yuan.

The development of policies has made enterprises “light on the battlefield”
and their vitality has sprung up. This is a practical example of the positive effects of macro policies.

Looking ahead, policy will remain an important source of confidence.

　　”In general, the large space for macro policies is an important guarantee for the stable and healthy development of China’s economy in the future.
”

Liu Aihua said that the current increase in income levels, the increase in the fiscal deficit rate, and excessive foreign exchange reserves. From these perspectives, there is still more room for macroeconomic policy operations, and policy tools are abundant and abundant.

　　National Development and Reform Commission spokesman Meng Wei said that in response to the downward pressure on economic operations, the macroeconomic policy will be maintained in a continuous and stable manner, counter-cyclical adjustments will be strengthened, tax and fee reduction policies will be formulated, and liquidity will be maintained reasonably and adequately.Reform and opening up have stimulated market vitality.

　　”As long as we make good use of the important strategic opportunity period, grasp the macro trend, strengthen our strategic self-confidence, and work hard, we will be able to effectively respond to external risks and challenges.
”
“Meng Wei said.

　　Li Jie

Zhongzhi shares (600038)： Harbin branch revenue doubles, driving high-growth interim report performance exceeds market expectations

Zhongzhi shares (600038): Harbin branch revenue doubles, driving high-growth interim report performance exceeds market expectations

Investment highlights: Zhongzhi shares (600038) released the 2019 semi-annual report and achieved revenue of 69.

0 million yuan, an increase of 28 in ten years.

75%; net profit attributable to mother 2.

410,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.

50%; 北京夜网 deduct non-net profit 2.

32 ppm, an increase of 35 in ten years.

18%; performance exceeded market expectations.

The scale effect of increased delivery significantly increased profitability, and the company’s profit growth rate was higher than revenue growth rate.

Company revenue increased by 28.

75%, while net profit attributable to mothers increased by 35.

50%, higher than the growth rate of revenue, the company’s net profit margin from 3.

23% increased to 3.

41%, profit margin increased by 5.

At 6%, we believe that it is mainly the Harbin branch. The production and delivery of Jingdezhen branch increased, and the scale effect significantly increased the net interest rate.

Company revenue increased by 28.

75%, mainly due to the substantial increase in revenue of the Harbin branch.

(1) 2019H1 Harbin branch 20.

800 million (30%).

2%), an increase of 98 in ten years.

6%, with a total profit of 65.95 million, an annual increase of 155.

9%, it is expected to mainly double the revenue brought by the new demonstration volume, the scale effect will be significant, and the profits will gradually increase.

(2) Jingdezhen branch 40.

800 million (accounting for 69.

6%), an annual increase of 11%, a relatively stable growth; profit increased by 2.

36 billion, an annual increase of 20.

0%.

We believe that the main force is scheduled for stable delivery and other additional expenditures reduce production. It is expected that revenue will continue to grow by 10-15% in the next three years.

The company’s gross profit margin declined slightly from the same period last year.

6% interest rate 11.

3%, we think it is mainly due to the gross profit margin of the new banknotes produced by the Jingdezhen branch, which has a relatively high revenue.

(1) According to the announcement, the gross profit margin of Jingdezhen branch in 2019H1 is 9.

4%, a significant drop from the company’s overall level last year, and our analysis suggests that it may be caused by the new gross profit margin.

After the new standard has been steadily measured, the gross profit margin of Jingdezhen branch is expected to rebound rapidly.

(2) The gross profit margin of the Harbin branch is 11.

7%, slightly higher than the overall gross profit margin. We believe that the revenue scale of the Harbin branch doubled, and the decline in the proportion of fixed costs drove up the gross profit margin.

As the new sample is finalized, the scale effect will continue to appear, and the gross profit forecast of the Harbin branch will steadily increase.

Net profit increased by 35.

5%, mainly due to the company’s revenue growth, the proportion of expenses during the period decreased, and the results of cost reduction and efficiency improvements were significant, so the profit margin increased significantly. (1) The company’s four fee revenue accounted for 8.

7% is about 7.

4%, sales expenses, financial expenses decreased, of which revenue increased from 22 million to 34 million, cost reduction and efficiency gains outstanding results.

As the income scale continues to expand, the company’s overall fee reduction and efficiency improvement continue, and the company’s overall profit margin is expected to continue to increase.

(2) R & D expenses increased by 96 million miles.

3%, we believe that it is mainly due to the new model and the increase in the scale of development and production brought about by the new process, which shows that the company’s overall production scale has increased rapidly.

The company’s net operating cash flow is a net swap6.

4.5 billion, a decrease of 12 previously.

5 billion, our analysis believes that mainly due to the company’s production scale expansion, payment of upstream raw materials, spare parts and other cash expenditures increased significantly.

While the company’s downstream customers’ payment rhythm has accelerated simultaneously, it is expected that the operating cash flow will gradually improve.

A large amount of downstream demand guarantees that the company’s performance will continue to grow rapidly in the next three years.

We analyze and predict that at present, the aviation and naval vessels, helicopters and helicopters are still being extended, and the industry ceiling is continuously rising, and at the same time, the new scale of volume is increasing. We expect the company’s performance in the next three years to maintain a high compound growth rate.

Maintain profit forecast and “Buy” rating.

It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the 杭州桑拿 parent in 2019-21 will be 6, respectively.

61/8.

49/10.

63 trillion, currently sustainable (47.

23 yuan August 26) Corresponding PE is 42/33/26 times.

Considering that the company is the only listed leader in the field of helicopters, its future performance growth deserves special attention, and at the same time it supplements its asset consolidation expectations. Therefore, it maintains its profit forecast and buy rating.

HKUST Xunfei (002230) Third Quarterly Report Review： Performance Exceeds Market Expected Expenses, Pipeline Control Benefits Significant

HKUST Xunfei (002230) Third Quarterly Report Review: Performance Exceeds Market Expected Expenses, Pipeline Control Benefits Significant
The performance in the first three quarters exceeded expectations, and the net profit growth 合肥夜网 rate after returning to the mother after deduction was 183.49% of the companies released three quarterly reports on October 24, 2019: the first three quarters achieved revenue of 65.73 ppm, an increase of 24 in ten years.41%; net profit attributable to mother 3.740,000 yuan, an increase of 70 in ten years.51%; net profit after deduction is 6981.430,000 yuan, an increase of 183 in ten years.49%, the performance exceeded market expectations. Initially, the artificial intelligence industry continued to develop, and the company’s source technology-driven strategic layout results continued to appear. Among them, the company’s open platform business and education and medical care related to people’s livelihood expenses continued to grow rapidly.From a single quarter perspective, Q3 revenue was 23.4.5 billion every year 13.10%; net profit attributable to mother 1.840,000 yuan, an increase of 108 in ten years.06%; net profit after deduction is 3818.100,000 yuan, an increase of 762 in ten years.26%.　　The cost rate during Q1-Q3 continued to decrease, and the cost control benefit was significant. The inflection point of performance was confirmed quarterly, and the cost rate during Q1-Q3 2019 was 36.25%, 28.18%, 27.17%, continued to decrease quarter by quarter.　　Officials, the key talents and supplementary positions required by the company according to the development strategy are basically ready, and the company officially enters artificial intelligence2.Stage 0; Through adherence to cost control, the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers in Q1-Q3 in 2019 continued to increase, which were 24.26%, 45.06% and 70.51%, second and third quarter growth exceeded revenue growth.We believe that the company’s cost management and control effectiveness is significant, and the inflection point of performance has been confirmed quarterly.　　Q3 R & D expenses increase by 30 per year.24%, mainly due to the capitalization and amortization of R & D in the previous period and the increase in R & D expenses in the current period; the decrease in net operating cash flow in the third quarter improved.The 28% entity list incident has little impact on operating performance, and the business is expected to continue to grow in the future. On October 8, 2019, the company was included in the list of US government entities by the US Department of Commerce.The small impact of the incident on the company’s performance was mainly due to the fact that (1) the company’s overseas revenue accounted for a small proportion, which was 0 in 2016-2018.51%, 0.78% and 0.61%; (2) The company has stated that all of its core technologies come from independent research and development and have independent ownership. This situation has a plan and will not have a significant impact on daily operations.As a leading domestic artificial intelligence company, the company continues to promote the landing of technology applications, and future business growth can be expected.　　Investment suggestion: The cost management and control benefits are significant, the company continues to promote the application of artificial intelligence technology, and the future business growth can be expected.It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 will be 7 respectively.75, 10.90, 15.100,000 yuan, maintaining the “recommended” level.　　Risk warning: R & D progress is less than expected, business progress is less than expected, and industry competition is intensifying

Zoomlion (000157)： Three quarterly results increase by 167% in line with expectations

Zoomlion (000157): Three quarterly results increase by 167% in line with expectations

Brief evaluation of performance The company released three quarterly reports. In the first three quarters, it achieved operating income of 31.8 billion 厦门夜网 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51%, and net profit attributable to mothers.

800 million US dollars, an annual growth of 167%, deducting non-net profit of 2.8 billion, an increase of 189%; of which in the third quarter, single-quarter income of 9.5 billion US dollars, an increase of 50%, net profit attributable to the mother was 9 billion, an increase of more than 106%, deductionNon-net profit 6.

500 million, an increase of 111% in ten years.

The operating analysis was profitable, the operating conditions accelerated, and the company’s cash in hand began to release rapidly in 2019.

The post-cycle market of construction machinery continued to boom, and historical issues such as the growth of industry sales and second-hand equipment were cleared. The company’s gross profit margin rose to 30% in the first three quarters of 杭州夜网 2019, an increase of only 3.

5pct, net interest rate 11%, long-term substantial increase of 3.

8 points.

Single third quarter gross margin of 29.

4%, net interest rate 9.

4% ring than epoxy.

The expense ratio during the first three quarters was 17.

5%, decrease by 2 every year.

8pct. In the third quarter, the company continued to strictly control costs. After the increase in sales scale, the expense ratio is expected to decrease further during the period.

The receivables turnover rate and inventory turnover rate were maximized, and the net operating cash flow in the first three quarters of 2019 was 49.

600 million, a year-on-year growth of 62%, continued to hit a record high in the same period.

Abundant cash in hand: The company’s monetary funds and trading financial assets totaled 252 trillion in the first three quarters of 2019.

Driven by multiple plates, product competitiveness is strong, the market share continues to increase cranes, and the high prosperity of the concrete plate continues. In 2020, sales of truck cranes and pump trucks will continue to remain high, and the company is likely to achieve faster growth than the industry.

The company’s R & D is close to the market, new products are competitive, and engineering machinery4.

0 and other products are widely praised.

Driven by the prefabricated building factors, the tower crane continues to expand its development space; the company’s medium and large tower cranes have obvious competitive advantages, and the current market share exceeds 40%.

At present, the company’s world’s largest tower crane intelligent factory has been put into production, and the tower crane revenue has reached 10 billion.

In addition, the company began to increase efforts to cultivate high-altitude operation platforms and excavator products, transforming the company’s continuous improvement of products, which will lay a good foundation for the company to go further.

Profit forecast and investment recommendations The company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 is respectively 43/54/61 million, an increase of 115% / 25% / 12% and a compound growth rate of 44%.

EPS is 0.

55/0.

69/0.

78 yuan; PE is 10.

7/8.

5/7.

6 times, PB will be 1 in 2020.

1. Both have high safety margins.

Given an 11x PE estimate in 2020, the target price for June-December is 7.

5 yuan.

Maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warnings: Infrastructure real estate investment is less than expected; sales risk of some product industries; exchange rate risk.

ZTE Corporation (000063)： First-Quarter Performance Surpasses Expectations, Sets New Ground for 5G

ZTE Corporation (000063): First-Quarter Performance Surpasses Expectations, Sets New Ground for 5G

Event: The company released the 2018 annual report and the 2019 first quarter report preview. In 2018, the company achieved revenue of 855.

$ 100 million, at least 21 a year.

41%; net profit attributable to mother -69.

800 million.

In the first quarter of 2019, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to mothers will be USD 800 million to 1.2 billion, which will turn around every year.

Opinions: 1. The difficult 2018 has passed, and the improvement in Q1 2019 is obvious, and the performance exceeds expectations.

In terms of revenue, overall revenue decreased by 21 in 2018.

41%, in terms of business segments, of which the operator segment revenue 57 billion (-10% year-on-year).

51%), government business revenue was 9.2 billion yuan (-6% year-on-year.

13%), consumer business 19.2 billion yuan (-45 compared to the same period last year).

43%).

Gross profit margin was basically flat, of which the operator sector was 40.

37% (+0 year-on-year.

33pp), government and enterprise sector 29.

24% (YoY-0.

01pp), consumer business sector 12.

53% (-2% YoY).

79pp).

In terms of net profit, the scale of 2018 increased due to: US sanctions discriminated against 1 billion U.S. dollars, and operating stagnation losses due to the US chip embargo during April-June 2018.

After the chip embargo incident, the company’s revenue quickly recovered, and profitability began to resume in 2018Q3.

Among them, the revenue side: Q3 2018 began to resume positive growth, and Q4 improved from the previous quarter; the net profit side: 2019Q1 may turn losses, and at the same time, it has improved significantly.

It is estimated that in the first quarter of 2019, it will realize a net profit of about 8-12 trillion, with a median value of 1 billion U.S. dollars, and continue to turn losses, while measuring 2 in the fourth quarter of 2018.

$ 7.6 billion improvement.

2. After the embargo, the supply chain basically returned to normal, and the basic risks were reduced.

After the chip embargo was settled, the operator’s engineering construction / collection began to resume, ZTE’s production line resumed, and ZTE’s suppliers began to resume normal supply. According to Delll’Oro statistics, ZTE’s wireless connection in the third quarter of 2018The RAN business market share increased by 5 units, thus realizing the ability to reverse the overall market share lost to Samsung in the second quarter.

The normalization of the supply chain is the trend, and once again encounters the risk cost of chip embargo.

3. In the medium and long term, the company is one of the four major leaders of global communications master equipment vendors, capable of providing 5G end-to-end solutions.

As 5G gradually enters the commercial stage, the company is expected to benefit in the long run.

According to the information disclosed by the company on its official website on September 26, 2018, ZTE disclosed the first batch of 3GPP5G SEPs (standard essential patents) to ESSI to more than 1,000 families.

As a result, ZTE became one of the four patentees holding more than 1,000 families of 5G NR standard patents.

At the same time, the company is one of the few manufacturers that can provide 5G end-to-end solutions, and the transition to 5G commercialization has gradually landed. The core business of the company’s operators 深圳桑拿网 and consumers promotes the development of new opportunities.

Investment suggestion: Through the development of the 2G to 4G era, the company has become the world’s top four telecommunications equipment vendors. In the new era of 5G construction, the deployment of 5G end-to-end solutions is adopted to lead the global 5G development and continueIncrease global market share.

We are firmly optimistic about the company’s long-term growth prospects after 2020’s expanded commercial use of 5G.

It is estimated that the net profit for 19-21 will be 5,467,85 billion yuan, and maintain the “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: operational compliance risks, 5G advancement is not up to expectations, Sino-US trade friction escalates, and overseas market order capacity declines

Jiechang driver (603583)： Jiefang first board linear driver to quickly seize the market blue ocean

Jiechang driver (603583): Jiefang first board linear driver to quickly seize the market blue ocean

Leader in linear drive industry.

Jiechang Drive is a national-level emerging enterprise specializing in the development, production and sales of intelligent linear drive control systems for the military.

As a domestic industry leader, it provides professional intelligent control and transmission solutions for related industries such as global medical care, elderly care and smart home.

At present, the company has formed three major product systems of smart office, medical care and smart home, which has become an important driving force for the company’s performance growth.

From 20佛山桑拿网12 to 2018, the company’s main business income was zero.

91 million to 11.

1.6 billion with a CAGR of 43.

06%.

2019Q1 main business income 2.

820,000 yuan, an increase of 54 in ten years.

31%.

Net profit attributable to mother is from 0.

1.3 billion to 2.

5.4 billion and a CAGR of 52.

90%, the net profit attributable to the parent in 2019Q1 is 0.

60 ppm, an increase of 41 in ten years.

77%.

Smart office is expected to erupt, medical and health care needs are strong, and the smart home market is broad.

1) Smart office: From 2013 to 2017, the company’s smart office revenue was 0.

3.3 billion, increased to 5.

55 ppm with a CAGR of 75.

86%.

Affected by the healthy concept, the global smart office linear drive system will exceed 20 billion US dollars in 2021, and it is expected that the compound 南京桑拿网 growth will exceed 20% in 2018-2021.

2) Medical health care: The company’s CAGR of revenue from 2013 to 2017 is 10.

11%, driven by the aging population, the global linear drive market is expected to reach USD 6.3 billion in 2021, and the CAGR will be 21 in 2017-2021.

29%.

3) Smart Home: CAGR of revenue from 2013 to 2017 was 22.

39%, affected by consumption upgrade, it is estimated that by 2022, the number of smart home reservations will reach 300 million units, with annual composite materials exceeding 15%.

Under the ODM model, strengthen sales channel control and focus on product innovation.

Under the ODM model, the company’s net interest rate in 2018 was 22.

75%, significantly higher than other levels in the same industry.

We believe that this is mainly due to the reduction of platform promotion and advertising expenses in sales expenses.

The company’s sales expense ratio was only 6 in 2018.

37%, far lower than the 28% of Lego shares.

03%.

The pressure on sales expenses was released, allowing the company to focus on product innovation.

The company has 283 patented technologies (including 22 domestic invention patents and 1 international invention patent), 28 software copyrights, and a three-pillar electric ICU bed system with complete intellectual property rights. The performance indicators and stability can replace similar foreign products.

High ROE, high performance and high production capacity create a domestic industry leader.1) High ROE.

The company’s ROE level is still in the leading position in the industry. The high net interest rate and excellent asset turnover rate are the reasons why the company’s ROE is ahead of its peers.

2) Improve customer viscosity.

By 2018, the company’s market share will reach about 10%, mainly: 1) multi-product production, rapid product transfer capabilities, and 2) excellent product performance.

The company’s sustainable product performance maintains customer viscosity, early deployment of overseas markets, acquisition of a deep customer base and stable customer relationships, and continued expansion of overseas markets.

3) High production capacity helps performance growth.

In terms of production capacity, after the IPO project is put into production, the company will increase its annual production capacity of 250,000 sets of smart office drive systems and 150,000 sets of smart home control systems.

After the new capacity has been fully increased, it is equivalent to about 0% of the 2018H1 smart office drive system and smart home control system sales.

8 and 43 times.

Investment suggestion: We predict that the company will realize net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-2021.

27, 4.

21, 5.

45 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.

9%, 28.

7%, 28.

4%, corresponding to an EPS of 2.

67, 3.

44、4.

45 yuan.

Covered for the first time, giving “overweight” rating.

Risk warning: the risk of sluggish demand in foreign markets, the domestic market penetration rate is less than expected, the risk of rising raw material prices, the risk of exchange rate changes