Zhongtai Macro: Is the stock market soaring since the beginning of the year, is the economy really going to stabilize?

Zhongtai Macro: Is the stock market soaring since the beginning of the year, is the economy really going to stabilize?

Since the beginning of the year, the stock market has surged, and cyclical assets have recently begun to fluster. Is the economy really going to stabilize?

How about the real economy and future trends?

  Summary 1. Looking at Population in the Long Term: The Power of Trends.

According to our estimates, population growth in developing countries will become even more severe in the future.

The population aged 15-64 years has been reduced to less than 1 billion in 2017, and will be reduced to less than 8 billion by 2050, thus reducing the labor force by more than 200 million in 30 years.

The country’s new born population is expected to fall below 15 million this year, 14 million within three years, and 13 million within 7 years.

The decrease in the number of working-age people means that the economic growth of developing countries will continue to the next step and return to the new normal growth rate.

  2, short-term policy: the game of leverage.

Facing the downward trend of potential economic growth, policies have been making countercyclical adjustments.

However, the policy stimulus can only solve short-term problems, but cannot solve the fundamental long-term economic growth problems, and the potential impact is great.

Before 2008, our financing was mainly to invest in plant, machinery and equipment, to increase the capital accumulation of production activities, to create GDP that can be matched with increased liabilities, and to maintain a stable leverage ratio.It is purely for the purpose of stable growth. Even if short-term economic demand is created, GDP cannot be continuously created, or the amount of GDP cannot be matched with debt, resulting in a sharp increase in leverage.

However, policy remains the most important variable affecting short-term economic trends.

  3, the cost of the cycle: real estate lag.

It is estimated that the growth rate of real estate sales in the country this year may be below -10%. However, in the short term, industrial production and economic demand are still necessary. This mainly comes from three aspects.The construction of newly started real estate projects continued last year. The third is that the growth rate of infrastructure investment 合肥夜网 will increase steadily.

But real estate sales are the leading indicators, and the short-term cyclical demand growth is more a lag after the real estate cycle is lengthened.

We believe that the real stabilization of this round of economy comes from a new round of policy stimulus in the backwardness of Xiaocheng Real Estate, and the resulting reform and opening up have released the vitality of the economy.

At present, it seems that the former is difficult, but it is something that is being worked hard, but it will take some time to achieve results.

  Although the domestic stock market’s rise since the beginning of the year has pulled investors back from extremely pessimistic expectations, the pricing of financial assets tends to become very optimistic, leading to a particularly pessimistic attitude. There is always some irrational pricing.

However, our idea is that, whether optimistic or pessimistic, regardless of cycle or growth, regardless of real estate or the stock market, core assets are the most valuable in the short term and the most value-added in the long term.

  Looking at the population in the long run: From the long-term perspective, population is the most important variable affecting economic growth.

We examined the experience of Japan and South Korea and found that the growth rate of the working-age population is highly correlated with the trend of economic growth.

In the 1960s and 1970s, Japan’s working-age population increased rapidly, and its economic growth rate gradually dropped from more than 10% to a level of about 4%. After the 1990s, Japan’s working-age population experienced a second wave of downward growth.Negative growth for more than ten consecutive years, and Japan’s economic growth rate has been flat since the 1990s.

  The growth rate of the working-age population in Korea is also highly consistent with the trend of economic growth. Since the 1980s, the growth rate of the working-age population in South Korea has fallen rapidly, and the economic growth rate has gradually dropped from a high growth of more than 10% to less than 4%.

  The correlation between economic growth and population growth is actually easy to understand. If the production efficiency of each truck is the same, the more trucks there are, the more products will be produced.

Of course, we don’t think that the population is the only determinant of economic growth. Technological progress, the improvement of the quality of the population, the reform of the economic system and the improvement of efficiency will all have an impact on economic growth.

  But in fact, technological progress will also be affected by demographic factors. We found that in countries with young and middle-aged demographic variables, the pace of innovation will also resume.

It shows that the working-age population will affect economic growth by affecting technological progress.

  Chart: Japan’s working-age population growth and economic growth (%) Source: CEIC, China-Thailand Securities Research Institute Chart: Korea’s working-age population growth and economic growth (%) Source: CEIC, China-Thailand Securities Research Institute Current statusThe turning point in population growth has been around since 2006.

The growth is that the growth rate of the working-age population has increased since 2006, and has experienced negative growth for the past four years. At the same time that the population of young and middle-aged people has decreased, the elderly population has accelerated.

The reason behind this is mainly that since the 1990s, the number of new born people has been greatly reduced each year, and has been maintained at a low level of less than 20 million. The third generation of “baby boomers” did not appear as scheduled.

As a result, more and more people are withdrawing from the working-age army each year, but the number of newly added working-age people is decreasing every year.

  According to our estimates, population growth in developing countries will become even more severe in the future.

Even considering the wide-caliber forecast of the diminishing hypertension method, the number of internal working-age population will continue to gradually increase.

The population aged 15-64 years has been reduced to less than 1 billion in 2017, and will be reduced to less than 8 billion by 2050, thus reducing the labor force by more than 200 million in 30 years.

  Affected by factors such as high housing prices and high maintenance costs, the number of newborns is expected to fall below 15 million each year, 14 million within three years, and 13 million within 7 years.

If relatively strong policies to encourage population growth are not promulgated soon, the long-term population growth rate will deteriorate further.

  Chart: Age of the working population and the growth rate of the elderly population (%) Source: CEIC, China-Thailand Securities Institute Chart: Forecast of the working-age population aged 15-64 (100 million people) Source: CEIC, China-Thailand Securities Institute’s working-age populationDeclining means that the economic growth of developing countries will continue to the next step and return to the new normal growth rate.

Since the 1980s, the total economic volume has experienced three downward waves. The first wave was in the middle and late 1980s. The main reason for this downward wave was that our marketization was not high enough, such as the failure of iconic price breakthroughs.As reforms continued, the economy picked up in the early 1990s.

  The second wave of downlink was in the mid-to-late 1990s. In the 1990s, the Japanese economy was in a slump, the Asian financial crisis broke out, external shocks or this downward trend in the economy. In 1998-02, industries such as textiles also experienced local overcapacity.situation.

After joining the WTO, the economies of developing countries have entered a new round of upswing.

  The third wave of downturn was after 2008. This wave of downturn was twice because the developed economy has been slumped after the financial crisis, and because the domestic factors of production-population have undergone major changes.

Population is a slow variable with many influencing factors. The impact of long-term population management policies cannot be changed in the short term.

The further increase of the working-age population growth means that the nominal economic growth rate will continue to the next step.

From the perspective of international experience, the long-term high-growth state is also difficult to maintain. The size of the economy and per capita income have increased to a certain degree, and eventually will return to conventional growth.

  Chart: China’s GDP growth rate (%) Source: CEIC, China-Thailand Securities Research Institute. Short-term policy: the game of leverage. Although the long-term economic growth in the past decade and ten years is generally downward, if we look at the specificAt each stage of the economic situation, it will be found that the economic growth rate is not a subdivision all the way, there are ups and downs in the middle process.

Over the past decade, developing countries have experienced three small economic cycles.

  This is because, in the face of a downturn in potential economic growth, policies have been making countercyclical adjustments.

In fact, when the economy is facing downward pressure, monetary and credit policies are often loosened first, followed by broad fiscal stimulus infrastructure, and finally loosened substantial changes.

When the economy recovers in the short-term, risk prevention and deleveraging will become the focus of policy. In fact, it will often be tightened first, and fiscal and monetary policies will be tightened afterwards.

  Chart: GDP growth rate and power generation growth rate (%)% since 2008 Source: CEIC, China-Thailand Securities Research Institute, but policy stimulus can only solve short-term problems, but not fundamental long-term economic growth problems, andThe possibilities have a great impact.
The trend of economic growth rate in the past ten years is still downward, which shows that policies can only delay the time of economic downturn, but cannot change the direction of economic operation.

In addition, the policy stimulus has resulted in a serious soaring of the previous society ‘s leverage ratio. The debt problems of some local governments have become prominent. The debt of residents has also soared, and the real estate bubble in small and medium-sized cities has become a serious problem.

A direct consequence of the high debt rate is that there is less and less room for further policy stimulus in the future.

  There are many discussions about leverage, so from a micro perspective, why is this leverage stable before 2008, but is it enough to soar after 2008?

In the past, our financing was mainly to invest in plant buildings, machinery and equipment, and to increase the capital accumulation of production activities, and these machinery, plant and other production facilities can continue to produce goods, and the GDP created can be matched with increased liabilities, and the leverage ratio will not bringMajor changes in the coming years.

  But after 2008, despite the potential slowdown in economic growth, policy stimulus has led to more investment in infrastructure and real estate.

However, the construction of some infrastructure and real estate is not directly used for production purposes, but purely to achieve the goal of stable growth.

For example, some of the infrastructure we build, such as airports, parks, highways, underground, are not so cost-effective from the perspective of economic benefits, because although they create short-term economic demand, they cannot continue to create GDP, or the amount of GDP cannot be created and debtMatch.

  If we reduce many of the houses we build, we ca n’t create enough rent from an economic perspective, because rent is the concentrated expression of the real estate ‘s contribution to the economy. Especially in the real estate market in most small cities, the rental yield is very low.From a long-term perspective, it mainly contributes to the “bubble”, but rarely contributes to economic growth continuously.

  Therefore, some investments in infrastructure and real estate even create debt. These investments can also stimulate the short-term economy, but they cannot continue to create GDP that matches the opposite amount. This is actually the reason for the gradual increase in leverage.

To understand from this perspective, the method of deleveraging should not be through controlling and increasing leverage, but how to guide the increased leverage into economically beneficial investments, and how to improve economic growth efficiency through reform and opening up.

  Chart: How much financing is needed to increase one unit of GDP per year Source: CEIC, China-Thailand Securities Research Institute Chart: Internal social leverage (%) Source: CEIC, China-Thailand Securities Research Institute ten years, real estate is involved in eachThe stimulus for economic recovery.

Regarding this, there have been many discussions on the data. Real estate plays a part in many aspects such as currency creation, consumption growth, and industrial economic stimulus.

We only look at the order of policy decisions. In each round of the economic downturn, in fact, it is almost the last one to be relaxed. Whenever the economy stabilizes, real estate is often the first policy to be tightened.

This not only shows that it is difficult to support the economy by infrastructure alone, but also that stimulating real estate may be helpless.

  The average annual urban population increase in the past 10 years has basically fluctuated around 20 million, but the area of commercial housing sold each year has doubled from 700 million square meters to nearly 1.5 billion square meters.

The increase in population has not seen an increase, but the number of houses sold has increased significantly. This is mainly due to our policy stimulus.

  The main factor affecting the real estate trend in each cycle is the adjustment policy. We can divide the adjustment policy of real estate into several dimensions: First, monetary policy. Real estate is an industry that is very sensitive to interest rates, so currency will affect all lines.The overall policy of the city; the second is the policy of alternative demand such as purchase and loan restriction, down payment ratio, which refutes the impact of large cities in the first and second tiers; the third is the monetization of shed reform, which is to increase the real estate demand of small cities in the third, fourth, and fifth linespolicy.

  In terms of the magnitude of the impact, the marginal impact of monetary policy on the real estate market has weakened in recent years. Instead, restrictions on purchases and loans, down payment ratios, and monetization of shed reforms have replaced alternative policies that affect the demand of various tier cities.

For example, after the liberalization of monetary environment and real estate policies in 14-15, the first and second tier cities were stimulated first, while the third, fourth and fifth tier cities were raised after the shed reform monetization policy, which indicates that the real estate of small citiesThe market rebound is not the wide currency, but the demand driven by the monetization of the shed.

  After the tightening of real estate budget policies in 16 years, the proportion of purchases and loans will be counted proportionally. The down payment ratio will be increased relatively. The increase in mortgage interest rates will be insignificant. Therefore, in 17 years, the real estate market in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities that have been tightened by policy has gradually cooled.However, the real estate market in small cities, still stimulated by the shed reform, was extremely hot in 17 and the first half of 18, which also reflects that the marginal impact of monetary policy on the real estate market in recent years has not been so great.

  Chart: Incremental growth rate of real estate investment in large and small cities (%) Source: WIND, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute Chart: Luoyang, Weifang, Yangzhou House Price Index Source: CEIC, Zhongtai Securities Research InstituteUnder relatively loose conditions, the real estate market will pick up, but it should be noted that this year’s shed reform target has dropped by about 30%, and the proportion of monetization has been significantly reduced. The margin of the stimulus policy has weakened, which will definitely make small and medium citiesThe real estate market is under pressure.

The sales of real estate in first- and second-tier cities account for only one-third of the country’s total, and they cannot support the entire real estate market.

From the perspective of high-level data, real estate in small cities is still retreating in recent months, and only a few real estate markets such as Beijing and Shanghai have seen a return to recovery before the decline.

It is estimated that the growth rate of real estate sales area this year may be below -10%.

  Chart: Incremental growth rate (%) of urban area and population expansion in cities Source: WIND, China-Thailand Securities Research Institute Chart: Most provinces lowered shed reform target Source: WIND, China-Thailand Securities Research InstituteThe adjustment of housing prices not only reduces the demand for the industrial economy, but also affects household consumption.

According to our approximate budget, the total market value of houses in four first-tier cities is about 101 trillion, and the total market value of houses in 31 second-tier cities is 73 trillion. The total market value of houses in other prefecture-level cities is 93 trillion.The market value of houses in other prefecture-level municipal districts reached 62%.This has never taken into account the county-level cities where the increase in house prices this round can also be considered. If considered, the proportion of housing market value in small and medium-sized cities is higher.

  According to our research, when house prices rise and household debt rises, the effect on consumption is more driven rather than restrained by logical reasoning; and when house prices stop rising or even decline, due to the existence of wealth effects and income effects,Instead, it will cause a drag on consumption growth.

  Chart: The growth rate of real estate market value in various cities (%) Source: CEIC, China-Thailand Securities Research Institute But in the short term, the growth rate of real estate sales will fall, while industrial production and economic demand must be reduced, this wasteFrom three aspects.

First of all, the fall in the sales end of real estate in small cities this year is different from 15-16 years. The last round of houses was mainly in the hands of developers. Due to financial pressure, developers will cut prices to inventory, which is equivalent to a “smashing” model.

After this round of inventories, the house is mainly in the hands of residents. The cost of residents holding houses will be reduced, and they will not easily “smash the plate”, so this round of small town real estate sales will cool down, but the prices will “resist””.

  Until then, construction of previously started real estate projects will continue.

In the context of tight credit last year, developers mainly adopted a high turnover model to quickly acquire land-start construction-sales repayment-continue to acquire land.

Therefore, the main contribution of the high growth of real estate investment last year came from land transactions, but the volume of land transactions decreased and the transfer of land use rights. What really contributed to GDP and industrial production was the investment in construction and installation.

Due to the time limit for delivery, new projects started last year will continue to advance this year, and construction and installation investment will gradually support industrial production.

  Finally, the growth rate of infrastructure investment this year will continue to grow steadily.

Under the downward pressure of the economy, this year’s overall central finance will become the main force to increase leverage, which will support infrastructure. We expect the infrastructure growth rate to rise to more than 10% this year, which will also support the economy.

  But real estate sales are the leading indicators, and the short-term cyclical demand growth is more a lag after the real estate cycle is lengthened.

We believe that the real stabilization of this round of economy comes from a new round of policy stimulus in the backwardness of Xiaocheng Real Estate, and the resulting reform and opening up have released the vitality of the economy.

At present, it seems that the former is difficult, but it is something that is being worked hard, but it will take some time to achieve results.

  Although the domestic stock market’s rise since the beginning of the year has pulled investors back from extremely pessimistic expectations, the pricing of financial assets tends to become very optimistic, leading to a particularly pessimistic attitude. There is always some irrational pricing.

However, our idea is that, whether optimistic or pessimistic, regardless of cycle or growth, regardless of real estate or the stock market, core assets are the most valuable in the short term and the most value-added in the long term.

  Risk alert events: trade friction; economic downturn; exchange rate risk.

  Title: “Is the Economy Stabilizing-A Debate on Trend Power and Countercyclical Policies (Zhongtai Hongliang Zhonghua)”

Hang Seng Electronics (600570): The rise of the new fintech giant

Hang Seng Electronics (600570): The rise of the new fintech giant

The basic strategic financial IT industry has entered a new innovation cycle. Hang Seng is leading the strategic layout and will strengthen its competitive advantage in the future.

Since 2015, new demands from financial institutions for RegTech and FinTech have emerged: reorganization, the need to update business systems for compliance and risk control needs, and upgrades to keep pace with changes in regulatory policies; alternatives, hoping for innovative technologies for business improvementEmpowerment.

Hang Seng’s strategic layout is always leading and continuing to deepen: in terms of supervision, keep up with policy trends, quickly launch risk management, institutional counters and other products to meet customer needs; technically, actively deploy cloud computing, artificial intelligence, blockchain, etc., and innovative businessIt has achieved rapid development, with a CAGR of more than 70% in the past three years.

We believe that the financial IT industry has high professional barriers and strong customer stickiness. The company is a leader in the industry and has a leading edge layout. It will strengthen its leading edge in the future.

  Hang Seng has leading product power, operating capability and continuous improvement of the ecosystem. It is the financial IT company with the most potential of 100 billion market value in China.

Referring to the rise of the international giant FIS, we believe that the competition of financial IT companies is a combination of product power, operation power and ecological power.

For Hang Seng, from a qualitative perspective, the company relies on the leading market structure (core products market share 50% -90%), years of industry understanding (22 years of business experience), deep technology accumulation (40% R & D ratio), Etc. have built high barriers in product power and operational power. At the same time, in terms of ecological structure, the company is changing from a closed business expansion model to an open, cooperative model. From a quantitative perspective, we believe that financial IT companies at this stageThe ecological value depends on seven factors: the number of customers, the number of scenarios, the frequency of product use, the degree of big data mining, the value of a single customer, the number of platform users, and capital leverage.

Hang Seng covers nearly 700 core customers, multiple business scenarios, single customer value exceeds 4 million, financial service platform GTN has accumulated more than 30,000 developers, serves 1000+ financial institutions and continues to promote the ecological layout through external investment.

We believe that after years of precipitation, the company’s product power and operating capacity are leading and it is beginning to rebuild the ecology. It is the financial IT company most likely to grow into a market value of 100 billion in China.

  For benchmarking international giants, Hang Seng still has a lot of room for growth. Looking at the scene for a long time, ecologicalization will become the company’s core development proposition.

In comparison, FIS, one of the world’s largest financial IT solution providers, has 20,000+ customers in 130+ countries around the world, covering 深圳丝袜会所 multiple business scenarios in the main financial sector. There are dozens of outsourcing acquisitions, all of which far exceed Hang Seng.

The current FIS revenue is as high as US $ 8.2 billion, and its market value is as high as US $ 37 billion, which is 17 times that of Hang Seng and 5 respectively.

5 times.

Looking at the domestic financial IT industry, Hang Seng has obvious leading advantages in both traditional business departments and innovative business layouts. It is the company most likely to become the next FIS, with huge room for growth.

In the long run, we believe that by attracting ecological partners to join and absorbing the development of ecological forces is an efficient way for Hang Seng to achieve overtaking in curved roads. Scenarioization and ecological development will become the company’s core proposition in the future.

  The value assessment and investment recommendations predict that the company’s net profit attributable to the mother in 19-21 will be 8.
.

3/10.

4/12.

800 million, EPS 1.

34/1.

67/2.

07 yuan, comprehensive SOTP and EV / (EBITDA + R & D) evaluation method, we believe that the company’s reasonable market value of 67.4 billion US dollars, given a target price of 110 yuan, raised to “Buy” rating.

  Risk reminder: The improvement of internal management is less than expected; the implementation of regulatory policies is less than expected; the development of innovative technologies is less than expected; the IT expenditure of financial institutions is less than expected; the company’s external investment and cooperation with Ant Financial Services are less than expected; the potential risks of investment income and benefits;Event “impact.

Northbound Funds Over 30 Billion Funds, A Shares of Pharmaceutical Shares Are Continuously Reduced

Northbound Funds Over 30 Billion Funds, A Shares of Pharmaceutical Shares Are Continuously Reduced

For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!

  Original title: More than 30 billion yuan in funds for the Northbound A-share medical shares have been continuously reduced holdings Securities Times reporter Mao Jun This 杭州桑拿网 week is the first trading week of the Year of the Rat. Affected by the pneumonia epidemic, the value of the A-share market has fluctuated.

Firstly, it was panic-sold on Monday. More than 3,000 stocks in the two cities fell, and then rebounded continuously with the promotion of funds. The GEM index not only regained its lost ground, but also hit a new high in more than three years.

Amidst the market quake, the operation of Northbound Capital is both bold and decisive, yet stable, and worthy of investors’ possession.

  When Monday ‘s plunge, Kitakami ‘s funds actually made a net purchase of 18.2 billion, making it the second largest single-day net purchase in history.

Financing customers sold 114 million net and sold their chips at the lowest price.

When the market rushed up, when some of the funds from the north started to profit, the financing customers began to buy again.

In total, the capital of the Northbound Group has net purchases of more than 30 billion yuan in the whole week, which is the third largest weekly net purchase in history, and financing customers have sold more than 3 billion yuan.

  In terms of the types of stocks to buy, Kitakami Capital and Financing Customers are also quite different.

Of the 28 first-tier industries in Shenwan this week, only nine have received financing for net purchases, and most of the money is concentrated in the pharmaceutical and biological industries.

The pharmaceutical and bio-industry received a total of 49 net purchases this week.

USD 5.9 billion, more than the total net purchases of financing in the next eight industries.

But Beishang Fund is not prominent in the purchase of popular medical and biological stocks. In Guizhou Moutai, Gree Electric, Ping An of China, Ningde Times, Shanghai Airport, Yili Stock, China National Travel Service, Wuliangye, 8 were net purchased by Beishang Fund this week.None of the million-dollar stocks is directly related to the outbreak.

Beishang Capital has selected the leading companies in various industries for the bottom-up, so that it can avoid the risk of market fluctuations and enjoy short-term excess returns, which is a strategy that can be attacked and retreated.

Fingers chasing attractions may gain more profits in the short term, but once the epidemic is stable, referring to the SARS epidemic, pharmaceutical and biological stocks will face huge risks, and financiers are high-risk and high-yield speculation.

  China Resources announced on the 9th and 9th that the company’s traditional Chinese medicine product Shenfu Injection and Shengmai Injection have entered the “Pneumonitis Diagnosis and Treatment Program for New Coronavirus Infection (Trial Version 4)” and are recommended for use.

In order to win the battle against epidemic prevention and expand the social responsibility of central enterprises, during the Spring Festival, the company made emergency deployments, quickly adjusted its production plan, prioritized the production of epidemic prevention varieties, and guaranteed the supply of medicines.

China Resources Sanjiu has a proper mainstream anti-pneumonia epidemic concept stock, but Kitakami Capital has continuously reduced its holdings of China Resources Sanjiu this week. Among them, it reduced 8.14 million shares on Monday, 4.11 million shares on Tuesday, and 7.25 million shares on WednesdayReduced holdings of over one million shares in 3 days. The holdings were reduced from more than 100 million shares before the holiday to 80.6 million shares. The total reduction was more than 20 million shares and cash was realized.

6.2 billion.

  Before the holiday, Beijing Capital has reduced its holdings of China Resources 39 for four consecutive trading days. After the holiday, it has taken advantage of growth opportunities to increase its holdings.

  Zhifei Bio-Tech also announced recently that its wholly-owned subsidiary Zhifeilong Coma and the Chinese Academy of Sciences ‘Microbiological Infection Framework Agreement will accelerate the development of a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) vaccine.

It is also an authentic concept stock of anti-pneumonia epidemic, but Kitakami Capital also severely reduced its holding of Zhifei creatures this week, with a total net sale of 2.

4.2 billion yuan.

  Due to the spread of the epidemic, the demand for epidemic-resistant and anti-epidemic related products soared, Yuyue Medical’s disinfection and control, temperature measurement, oximeter and mask products were completely out of stock, and the market demand for ventilator, nebulizer and oxygen generator products increased continuously.

However, Beishang Capital also continuously reduced its holdings of Yuyue Medical this week, replacing 23.34 million shares with 31.77 million shares before the holiday, reducing its daily holdings by more than one million shares, totaling 2 北京spa会所 cash.

3.7 billion yuan.

  The medical shares of Tiger Pharmaceuticals, Yixintang, People’s Tongtai, and Baiyunshan were also sold over 100 million yuan this year by Beijing Capital.

Harbin Pharmaceutical, Uni-Phase Pharmaceuticals, Ogilvy Medical, People’s Tongtai, and other strong stocks that have daily limit daily after the holiday. Most of the funds going north are also holding down.

Dongjiang Environmental (002672) 2019 Interim Report Review: Steady Development of Non-hazardous Disposal Business Focusing on Gradually Release of Main Business Capabilities

Dongjiang Environmental (002672) 2019 Interim Report Review: Steady Development of Non-hazardous Disposal Business Focusing on Gradually Release of Main Business Capabilities

Event: The company released its 2019 Interim Report and achieved operating income16.

90 ppm, an increase of ten years.

67%; net profit attributable to mothers2.

52 ppm, a reduction of 5 per year.

08%; the company’s Q2 operating income +9.

42% to 8.

8.3 billion, net profit attributable to mothers in a single quarter is continuing to pick up (Q1 +208.

57 to 1.

08 ppm; Q2 +33.

33% to 1.

4.4 billion).

The development trend of harmless disposal is good, and the sales of resource-based products are under pressure.

As a leading company in hazardous waste disposal, the company has reportedly obtained innocuous disposal 四川逍遥网 qualification (incineration and landfill) 14.

3 The lowest annual pre-tax profit, and at the same time improve the quality of capital, and increase the business income of +31 by jointly driving the industrial waste innocent disposal business.

54% to 7.

97 ppm, gross margin increased by 2.

08 to 48.

94%; affected by falling metal prices and shrinking demand from downstream companies, the company’s industrial waste resource utilization business operating income decreased by -13.

64% to 5.

66 ppm; Benefiting from the improved prosperity of electronic plug-in disassembly processing, the company’s electronic plug-in disassembly business increased operating income by 40.

76% to 0.

89 ppm, gross margin increased by 4.

21 pct to 38.

29%; the company focuses on the core main business and the construction of internal engineering projects, environmental engineering (-37.

57%), trade and other businesses (at least -78.

63%) total reduction in operating income.

The company’s comprehensive gross profit level is the highest +1.

4 to 36.

69% (Gross profit margin in the second quarter was +1.

19 to 37.

26%), the rate control during the period is good, ten years -1.

12 pct to 20.

15%.

Sufficient capital reserves and gradual release of production capacity.

Reporting intelligence company obtained bank credit 97.

49 trillion and registered 15 trillion medium-term notes, the cash in hand at the end of the period reached 13.

3.0 billion; the company has a total of 3 projects in Nantong Dongjiang, Xingye Dongjiang put into operation (total production capacity of 18.

In January / year), 4 projects including Xiamen Dongjiang Reconstruction and Expansion, and Shaoxing Huaxin are under construction (total capacity of 13).May / year).

Sufficient capital reserves and strategic prospects will ensure the gradual release of the company’s production capacity and bring a steady increase in company performance.

Maintain “Overweight” rating on A / H shares: The company’s resource business is under pressure, focusing on environmental engineering, trade and other business contraction after the main business of hazardous waste. We lower our profit forecast and expect the company’s net profit attributable to its parent to be 19-19.

54/5.

50/6.

65 ppm (original value 4).

92/5.

84/6.

8.3 billion), corresponding to the EPS of 19-21 is 0.

52/0.

63/0.

At 76 yuan, the current A-share breakthrough corresponds to 19-year PE, and the current H-share breakthrough corresponds to 19-year PE.

As the absolute leader of the hazardous waste industry, the company will still benefit from the high boom period of the industry. The gradual release of production capacity will gradually materialize, maintaining the rating of Dongjiang Environmental Protection (A) “Overweight” and maintaining Dongjiang Environmental Protection (H) “Overweight” rating.

Risk reminder: The progress of the project is not as good as expected. After the development of the company, there is a shortage of talents in the operation business, and the collaborative disposal method of the cement kiln will be squeezed in the future.

Jinke Co., Ltd. (000656): Sales continue to increase and sales performance is beautiful

Jinke Co., Ltd. (000656): Sales continue to increase and sales performance is beautiful
Event Overview Jinke issued three quarterly reports, and achieved revenue of 432 in the first three quarters.0 million yuan, +60 for ten years.7%; net profit attributable to mother 39.8 ‰, +81 a year.7%. Analysis and judgment: The performance has increased significantly and the operating quality has significantly improved. The company achieved operating 杭州夜网 income of 432 from January to September 2019.0 million yuan, an increase of 60 in ten years.7%; net profit attributable to mother 39.8 ‰, an increase of 81 in ten years.7%. The high revenue growth was mainly due to the increase in the scale of real estate delivery reported by the merged company.In the first three quarters, the company’s sales gross profit margin and sales net profit margin reached 30.1% and 10.79%, an increase of 4 over the same period last year.15pct and 1.84pct, profitability is further upward. Sales are dazzling, and Land actively reports the scale. The company has realized sales of approximately USD 125.5 billion, an annual increase of approximately 45%, a growth rate higher than the industry average, and has completed 83 of its scale sales plan.7%; given the current abundant resources available for sale, the company is expected to fulfill the sales target of the previous 150 billion U.S. dollars with great probability.In the first three quarters, the company’s investment amount was 614 million, and the investment accounted for about 49% of sales, maintaining a high level of land acquisition intensity. Financial optimization and overall risk controllable. Until the end of the reporting period, the company’s asset-liability ratio and net debt replacement after excluding advance receipts.03% and 144.33%, a decrease of 2 over the same period last year.23pct and 4.67pct, debt ratio continued to improve.At the end of the third quarter, the company had 309 monetary funds in hand.6 ppm, an increase of 5 in ten years.The short cash debt ratio was 6% from 1 in the same period last year.04 rose to 1.07. Short-term debt repayment pressure is under 夜来香体验网 control. Investment suggestions Jinke’s stock has a rapid growth, beautiful sales, rich soil reserves and good financial conditions.The company’s EPS for 19-21 is expected to be 1.02/1.32/1.57 yuan, corresponding to PE is 6.7/5.2/4.3 times, the first time coverage gives the company an “overweight” rating. Risks suggest that real estate policies continue to tighten and sales are below expectations.

Chinese medicine is not all taken after meals

Chinese medicine is not all taken after meals

Many people think that the medicine must be taken after meals. In fact, the time of taking the Chinese medicine decoction will affect the efficacy of the medicine. It is very important to choose the appropriate time to take the medicine. Some medicines need to be taken on an empty stomach.

  Medications taken on an empty stomach should be taken at least an hour before a meal, and properly taken on an empty stomach in the morning. Since there is no food in the stomach and duodenum on an empty stomach, the medication can be avoided from mixing with food and quickly enters the intestine.Digestion and absorption, this part of the drug includes the following three categories: tonic drugs: such as Siwu decoction, Sijunzi decoction, Shengmaiyin, etc., taken on an empty stomach, can fully absorb the drug, better play the role of nourishing qi and blood, conditioning Yin and Yang.
  Drugs for the treatment of cancer diseases: such as laxatives, which can be taken on an empty stomach so that the drug is not blocked by food, and the effect of the drug can be exerted quickly.

  Deworming drugs: such as Lizhong Anzhi Decoction, Wumei Wan, etc., taken on an empty stomach can maintain a high drug concentration in the intestine, which can drive the insects to kill the insects and make the insects quickly discharged.

Excessive consumption of coarse grains reduces human immunity

Excessive consumption of coarse grains reduces human immunity

Eating coarse grains has become a fashion of carbonization.

Many people like to eat coarse grains because they think it is nutritious, tastes good, and is good for teeth and facial muscles.

However, although coarse grains are good, they should not be eaten too much.

Because it contains too much dietary fiber, it will hinder the body’s absorption of other nutrients, which will reduce the body’s immunity.

  Coarse grains are relative to the fine grains such as polished rice, white noodles, etc., which mainly include corn, millet, purple rice, sorghum, oats, buckwheat, wheat bran, and various dried beans such as soybeans, green beans, and red beansMung beans and so on.

Due to the simplicity of processing, coarse grains retain many nutrients not found in fine grains.

For example, it contains less carbohydrates than fine grains, contains additive fiber length, and incorporates B vitamins.

At the same time, many coarse grains also have medicinal value: buckwheat contains other grains without its chlorophyll and rutin, which can treat hypertension; corn can accelerate intestinal peristalsis, avoid colon cancer, and can effectively treat hyperlipidemia,Arteriosclerosis, gallstones, etc.

Therefore, people with hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, and constipation should eat coarse grains.

  Due to the cellulose and phytic acid contained in coarse grains, more than 50 grams of cellulose are added every day, and long-term consumption will cause human protein supplementation to be blocked, a small amount of metabolism will be reduced, causing damage to bones, heart, blood and other organ functions, reducingThe human immune system even affects fertility.

In addition, buckwheat, oats, and corn have a high content of phytic acid. Phytic acid can hinder the absorption of calcium, iron, zinc, and phosphorus, and affect the internal metabolic balance of minerals.

Therefore, the replacement of these minerals should be increased when eating coarse grains.

  Too much fiber is harmful to adolescent girls.

Because, hypertension in food will be transformed into fiber replacement initialization in coarse grains.

Decreased absorption of plasma will lead to reduced female hormone synthesis and affect the development of reproductive organs such as the uterus.

Therefore, the fiber absorption of adolescent girls can exceed 20 grams per day.

Due to the weakened function of hypertension in the elderly, eating more coarse grains will cause abdominal distension, digestion and absorption are weakened, and over time, it will lead to malnutrition.

In addition, iron and zinc deficiency will cause anemia and premature brain failure in the elderly.

The best daily cellulose adsorption of the elderly is not more than 25?
35 grams.

  In addition, “eating coarse and eating miscellaneous” depends on different groups of people.

Taking 25?
As an example, a 35-year-old person, excessive consumption of coarse grains will affect the absorption of proteins, inorganic salts and certain trace elements by the body’s functions, and even affect the human reproductive ability.

Especially for men of this age, the diet should be rich in zinc, selenium, vitamin B and C, and long-term consumption of excessive high-fiber foods, the body’s protein supplementation is blocked, a small amount of intake is greatly reduced, and trace amountsThe lack of elements has led to the slow development of heart, bone and other organ functions and hematopoietic functions, reducing the body’s immune capacity.

And 35?
At the age of 45, the metabolism rate of the body begins to slow, so you should eat less sweet, less nutritious food, and you should eat all kinds of coarse, miscellaneous grains, soybeans, dried fruits and fresh fruits.

  At present, the United Nations has formulated the highest guidelines for fiber foods. It has established that healthy people should include 30?
Recommended standard for 50 grams of fiber.

Studies have found that 6 points of coarse grains and 4 points of fine grains are the most suitable for daily diet.

Therefore, coarse and fine grains are most reasonable to eat.

Eating coarse grains should also pay attention to methods.

From the nutritional point of view, it is better to eat corn, millet, and soybean separately if they are mixed in a ratio of 11: 1: 2, and the nutritional value is higher, because this can make proteins play complementary roles.

The Laba porridge, Babao porridge, and assorted vegetables that we often eat in our daily lives are good coarse grain mixed food.

Seven things to note in winter skiing

Seven things to note in winter skiing

Winter is the best time for skiing.

Now that people’s awareness of entertainment is constantly increasing, skiing is gradually becoming a popular entertainment item.

However, this is a relatively dangerous sport, and it is easier to be injured or even accidental during the activity.

Since November 2012, dozens of fractures have been caused by skiing injuries.

Therefore, it is necessary to master some methods of self-help and mutual rescue.

  If you want to avoid the ground to avoid injuries, there are seven things you should pay attention to before skiing.

  Note one, beginners look for teachers.

  Beginners are advised to find a coach or companion who is more proficient in junior skills, and then glide alone after mastering the essentials.

  Note two, don’t forget to warm up.

  Preparatory activities can increase the excitability of the central nervous system, increase the temperature of muscles, unblock blood circulation, increase the softness and range of motion of joints and ligaments, and prepare for activities before sliding, which is generally not easy to fall.

  Note three: clothing is warm and sharp.

  Wear clothing that is both warm and sharp.

In this way, it is easy to move, and you can wear knee pads and wrist braces under certain conditions to play a certain protective role.

Wear gloves and earmuffs when the weather is extremely cold.

After the exercise, wipe off the sweat in time and get dressed to prevent colds and frostbite.

  Note four: Remember when science falls.

  When you fall out of balance, immediately bend your body to lower your center of gravity.

When lowering, gather your limbs so you can avoid or reduce falls.

  Note 5: Dangerous actions must not be allowed.

  Don’t make dangerous and obstructive movements.

Do not place sharp objects such as nail clippers, knives, and fragile glass vials in your pocket and waist to prevent falls and injuries.

  Note six: bring some common medicines.

  It is best to bring some essential medicines and some common emergency knowledge before you go.

Can prepare sterile dressings (gauze and gauze pads), bandages, triangle towels, etc.

If you have a cold, you can take some cold and cold medicine, Banlangen medicine.

Once the joint is accidentally sprained, it can be used topically quickly. It can relieve pain and swelling. It can relieve pain and swelling.

  Note 7: Choose the snow track according to your ability.

  When you first arrive at the ski resort, you should first understand the general situation of the ski resort. You must carefully understand the height, slope, length, width and surrounding conditions of the ski slopes, and choose the corresponding ski slopes according to your skiing level.

Familiar with the terrain, the location of the snow facilities, the rescue situation, and strictly abide by the rules of the ski area regarding safety management.

Pay attention to the opening hours of the ropeway and do not disturb it when unattended.

  In addition, although the snow is relatively soft, the general skiing area slides from high to low, and the impact is very large. Once an accident occurs, the injury will be very serious.

If you are in pain after a fall, you must not immediately get up and move around. You should call for help nearby.

If there is severe pain in the waist, you should call the emergency number for professional assistance.

Winter men’s spleen deficiency tonic diet plan

Winter men’s spleen deficiency tonic diet plan

The temperature drops sharply in winter, the spleen is suffering from cold, the spleen is not transported, or the body is weak.

  Tonic principle: Men with spleen deficiency should mainly tonicate the spleen during the winter and eat more warm and spleen-rich foods, such as rice, lotus seeds, coriander, and catfish, catfish, carp, belt fish, shrimp and other aquatic products.

Yam, jujube, and lotus seeds are added with starch, which is easy to absorb, and has the effect of strengthening the spleen and invigorating qi. For the absorption of meat, you should choose fish with fine fiber.

  Diet plan: drink more yam porridge, jujube porridge, catfish soup, carp soup on the basis of ensuring daily nutritional balance.

Women must see whitening food in different parts

Women must see whitening food in different parts

When it comes to beauty, the first thing many people think of is going to a beauty salon.

In fact, as long as you eat vegetables often, you can still make your skin radiant, and the effect is no less than going to a beauty salon!

According to nutritionists, the following foods are beauty experts!

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hzh {display: none; }  面部厚黑的食疗  健康状况、饮食营养、生活方式与洗脸化妆都会影响皮肤的俊美。Often exposed to the sun, the skin will become dark, and if you don’t have a mask, the skin will thicken.

  Medical scientists believe that the darkening of the complexion is mostly caused by insufficient kidney and essence, and can be taken orally with kidney-reinforcing drugs such as Liuwei Dihuang Wan.

  The Ziheche porridge recipe in the diet has the effects of nourishing qi, nourishing kidney, and nourishing essence and nourishing blood; tamarind jujube and longan porridge recipe is suitable for thickening the skin caused by insufficient heart and spleen qi and blood; ginseng yam porridge recipe is suitable for Qi failureThe complexion caused by tan is yellowish; the pollen of honey nectar can eliminate the dark spots on the face and make the appearance white; the peach blossom food is most suitable for those who have a dull and bleak face due to poor blood circulation;It can be fried, fried, fried, and has the effect of nourishing kidney and repairing subcutaneous tissue, and can remove the dark and dark brown air on the surface.

  Chinese medicine for blacks suffering from diabetes believes that: the heart is deficient in blood, previously called pale yellow and dim: liver qi stagnation, later called skin black and blue; spleen deficiency and blood stagnation can make the skin dark and thick.

Because of these skin-to-face ratios, the lack of thicker layers of pregnant women, coupled with poor blood circulation, can easily cause neck skin wrinkles to relax and produce wrinkles.

  However, with effective diet, the complications of black hair can be turned into a charming jade neck.

Nucleic acid is the preferred nutritional food.

  Japanese scientists have found that women take 800mg of nucleic acid daily, and after 1 month, the skin will become white and tender.

Foods with cutting-edge nucleic acids include fish, shrimp, yeast, liver, mushrooms, fungus, and pollen.

Rice porridge is a traditional treatment for the neck. Red dates and corn have the effect of nourishing qi and nourishing blood, nourishing and enriching the muscles, and are suitable for those caused by weak spleen and blood.

  Lumbar abdomen black diet smoking, alcoholism, fatigue and diseases, and many other reasons have led to a thick black lumbar spine in the lumbar spine.

Especially for those who are used to tightening their belts, black circles often appear on their waist skin due to long-term compression that affects blood circulation.

  Traditional Chinese medicine believes that when the spleen is deficient in kidneys, the dysfunction of the five internal organs to transport essence and qi will reduce the flow of blood to the lumbar spine and joint discs, and a rough black skin will form in the waist and abdomen.

  Dietary measures are to insist on eating cereals, vegetables, and fruits, which contain calcium, potassium, sodium, magnesium and other minerals, which are the most ideal foods for skin beauty.

Vitamin c is an essential component of the skin cell material, and it is inseparable from maintaining the permeability of the blood vessels in the waist and the balance of pigment metabolism.

  The traditional Shouwuxianmi porridge recipe has the functions of nourishing qi and blood, delighting bones, and nourishing liver and kidney, and is suitable for those with weak waists and darkening fade marks.

In addition, eating insects such as silkworm moths and young cicadas is also effective, because this kind of cuisine contains more than 20 free amino acids, which is an ideal skin bodybuilding substance.

The purple-breasted chest purple-black diet is more common in sedentary workers, or in patients with liver disease, sciatic nerve disease, endocrine disease, and menstrual disorders.

It has thick black wrinkles and purple, and even has skin diseases such as croup.

  Studies have shown that skin crusts that have suffered from vitamin C deficiency in the body for long periods of time appear blood spots, spots, and local hematomas or scleroderma.

Vitamin E can promote metabolism, increase capillary resistance, maintain normal permeability of pores, improve blood circulation in the tibia, spread hard wrinkles, and delay skin aging.

  Therefore, vitamin C and E should be added.

Foods rich in vitamin E are dairy, eggs, sesame, honey, etc.

At the same time, you should eat spicy spicy foods and acidic foods, and pay attention to the alternating sitting and daily, to maintain emotional stability.